Promises that Better Be Kept

The Conference of Parties (COP) is the authority for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and has met 29 times since beginning in 1995 in Bonn, Germany. Unless the parties, otherwise known as member nations, decide otherwise, the COP meets annually - most recently for a two week summit this past November in Baku, Azerbaijan. Interestingly, this global decision making body for limiting global temperature increase has never met in the USA, and certainly won’t during the next four years.

However, in 1992, America became the first industrialized nation to ratify the UNFCCC’s historic treaty that brought the world together for the first time to address a warming planet. And for the past thirty years, what is now 198 COP member countries have made progress with their No. 1 objective: ongoing discussions and decisions on what worldly action is required to minimize the climate crisis.

Greatly reducing greenhouse gas emissions is the COP’s primary goal which means holding the member nations accountable for their promises regarding pollution reduction.

As we enter the New Year, please know that climate action must be seriously spurred on at the higher required level in order to make up for time lost by failing to maximize each of the 1997 COP3 Kyoto Protocol's legally binding 2012 emission targets. Also, the 2015 COP21 Paris Agreement’s legally binding target promise for limiting the increase in average global surface temperature to an internationally recognized 1.5 degrees Celsius (1.5C), synonymous with the USA recognized 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (2.7F), by 2030 is behind schedule. Yet, in order to achieve this 1.5C mandate, global emissions have to be reduced by about 43% five years from now compared to 2019 levels, which requires greenhouse gas emissions to peak in 2024. Meaning, the demand for dirty energy must have reached its maximum last year - we will soon know the answer.

Also, the Paris summit established that human caused CO2 emissions will be slashed to net zero by 2050, and the remaining greenhouse (methane, etc.) gas at net zero shortly thereafter.

So, what does all that mean in terms of our future?

In order to provide you with a simple explanation, please remember what I call the Climate Action Promises Formula which takes in the 1.5C (2.7F) increase and net zero target factors. 

At this point in time, these two items are what worldwide government and industry leadership must start thinking seriously about. ‘Net zero’ is when greenhouse gas flowing into the atmosphere is balanced out by an equal amount being removed from the air all around us. Only through the near elimination of fossil fuel, increased energy efficiency and carbon capture will this become a reality - we have 25 years to make it happen. 

Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 swirling everywhere has increased by about 50%, and if the current emissions rate persists, Earth’s average surface temp will be at or greater than 2.0C above pre industrial times by 2040 to 2070. And a brown environment will make global livability very, very difficult. 

Presently, no one knows if people will be led to do the right thing. In 2023, the United Nations Panel on Climate Change provided four potential future scenarios on how much global surface temperatures could increase during the next 75 years.  Given the damage already done, the best case is to max out as far under 1.5C as soon as possible via signature emission reduction action. But if emissions remain at the current rate, by the end of this century the world will have adopted an unfortunate existence standard. Worse, if emissions rise, the average annual warming factor will be somewhere between an unthinkable 2.0C and 4.0 degrees Celsius over the preindustrial time frame.

In other words, minimal to no human derived greenhouse gas must infiltrate the air we breathe beginning 25 years from now. Natural CO2 is all that is required. . .like it was over 200 years ago and thousands of years before then. Once natural carbon is the only carbon, global warming surely will not exceed 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above what it was prior to 1750. This is the critical benchmark to avoid only the most SEVERE IMPACT of climate change. What we’re witnessing today regarding the consequences of severe weather brought on by a warmer planet will continue indefinitely and require personal and economic adaptation. The question remains: How much?

Regardless, clean energy must replace dirty energy! Concurrently, carbon has to be captured and stored before it leaves the smokestacks; which leaves the 1.5 - 2.0 trillion tons of excess human caused greenhouse gas that will have accumulated in the atmosphere since 1900 to remain. The 1.5C long term standard of life will become the new norm.

So sad.

Accepting a + 1.5C carbon electric blanket in the sky penalty is unacceptable.

It is not good enough and humanity shouldn’t have to settle for second best as a punishment for what big oil, gas and coal brought on without warning…

Earth is currently running at 1.2C over preindustrial times and look what that’s causing!

We shouldn’t have to be forced to adapt to a substandard environmental condition that one day should open enough public sector eyes to demand increased climate action by those developed nations that are still asleep, dreaming of their fat fossil fuel wallets. How long will it be until that day arrives?The Climate Action Promises Formula: Emissions peak in 2024 + Emissions are cut by around 43%, compared to 2019, to attain the required 1.5C by 2030 = net zero by 2050, does not get us back to where we belong in terms of rightful sustainability. 

 As you can deduct by now, there are two kinds of COP promises that the 198 nations have made to one another. Climate change mitigation which focuses mainly on cutting carbon and methane poisonous gas emissions by substituting clean energy for dirty energy. And climate change adaptation which deals with adjusting to a heating-up Earth that shows no sign of cooling down the slightest. . .so far. Promises made by the Conference of Parties in good faith attempt to set a worldly vibe for global leaders to trust one another during their mutual quest for renewable energy; and for financing climate action on behalf of the least developed, most climate warming vulnerable countries.

But is humanity currently on schedule for the above United Nations treaties of climate promises to be met? No. The promises made for transitioning away from fossil fuel have been minimally kept as oil, gas, and coal to a lesser extent, continue to dominate the global energy sector. The right words created good intentions. However, poor follow through results and we suffer the climate penalty. The WMO, World Meteorological Organization, recently warned that the last ten years are the warmest on record, and you can be sure 2024 will make it eleven years in a row. World politics have allowed for unprecedented sea surface temperatures, ice cap melting, widespread droughts, increasing number of wildfires, and extended flooding zones. These unforgivable impacts of climate change are NOT showing signs of slowing down.

Is the 1.5C penalty something we must endure forever? Maybe so. Consider this: While the U.S., the European Union and the U.K. have cut their greenhouse gas emissions by about a third since 1990, it is not enough. Global emissions have steadily increased from 22 million tons in 1990, to 39.02 million tons in 2023.

China, the U.S. and India are Earth’s biggest polluters and our nation did emit slightly less carbon and methane in 2023 than it did in 1990. Yet, compared to 1990, the 2023 atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases was up 62% overall, led by China, Indonesia, India and Brazil collectively up 188%; with China’s share leading the way at a plus 291%.

And yes, there was a noticeable rise in clean energy production in Europe,  America, and China; but way short of enough volume to keep fossil fuel from its dominance as the primary energy source.

Methane leaks are far from being addressed by most countries. Less than 5% of all nations have failed to set strict laws to stop methane from leaking into the atmosphere. The large producers of this gas continue to announce plans to do so, but so far at the COP meetings, no definitive targets have been set with methods to measure progress.

And, the global meat and dairy industry has made promises to limit its methane contribution, but no meaningful strategies for mandatory reduction requirements have been established at the UN COP summits. 

The 2023 COP28 in Dubai was to have “signaled the end of the fossil fuel era” is approaching with nearly 200 member nations promising to accelerate climate action BEFORE the end of this decade by tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency. Over a year ago, the Parties (nations) agreed to present their target timelines in early 2025 for economy wide awareness. Since that time, other global news has taken center stage and we have heard nothing regarding such forthcoming presentations. All eyes are on the USA’s climate action commitment. America is a world leader in many ways. But with a climate denier as President, and three other deniers heading up the EPA, Interior and Energy departments, one can only imagine the clash with the prior administration’s climate advancements. 

Stay with me as I report on this year’s climate navigation through the challenges that await. Due to the high level of environmental awareness within the younger generations, you can be sure the battle to replace fossil fuel with sustainable energy will never stop - until victory is reached.